North Korea Is Not Just a Nuclear Problem but Also a Complex Security Challenge

Anyone who claims to have an answer to North Korea’s nuclear problem has been misinformed. A premeditated nuclear attack is unlikely from any side. Rather, the risk of war lies in the possibility of miscommunication, misperception and miscalculation that could see the cycle of provocation and escalation spin out of control.

The Korean War ended in 1953 with a ceasefire but not peace agreement. The 38th parallel is heavily militarised, barbed wire-fenced, mined and patrolled. Over six decades of demonising, isolating and sanctioning, the Kim dynasty-led regime has perpetuated a stalemate at escalating levels of insecurity. North Korea conducts another nuclear test, possibly more powerful than before. Or a longer-range missile test. US and UN impose additional or tougher sanctions. US and North Korea exchange more threats. The stalemate continues, but with heightened sense of insecurity on all sides.

North Korea’s ambition to acquire an intercontinental nuclearised capability has had four components, three of which have been realised. First, it has been making bombs. According to revised US intelligence assessments, it may have as many as 60 bombs. Second, tests in 2017 proved it has acquired intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), to put all of mainland US within range. Third, it has successfully miniaturised warheads to fit them on the nose cone of missiles. But further work is needed for another year or two to make warheads robust enough to withstand the rigours of re-entry into Earth’s atmosphere like extreme temperatures and vibrations.

All this  is a direct challenge to US President Donald Trump’s insistence that a nuclear North Korea is unacceptable to America. The exchange of inflammatory rhetoric  have shown both Trump and Kim Jong-un to be bombasts, posing  a clear and present danger to world peace. Between 62-75% of the world’s people believe that Trump is dangerous, arrogant, intolerant and unfit to be president, and yet his power to use nuclear weapons goes virtually unchecked. The existing protocol has been designed for speed and efficiency, not deliberation, and permits the president to launch nuclear weapons with a single verbal order.

It may be too late to reverse North Korea’s nuclear status. Sanctions are ineffectual as a tool of compellence. They generally do more harm than good. They are even less useful against North Korea which is already completely isolated and cut off.